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Preventing Displacement in the Future of Work

The future of work will not arrive all at once, with a thud and a sudden robot takeover. Rather, incremental changes will gradually affect how work is organized and the mix of jobs in the economy. Of course, this is already happening. Technologies, like automation, artificial intelligence, the internet of things, and more are giving rise to new occupations and phasing out old ones. McKinsey Global Institute issued a new report, The Future of Work, in July 2019 describing a nuanced picture of how different geographies, occupations, and social demographics will be impacted by these changes to work as a result of technological disruption.

  • They found that for different geographies, the size and economic engine of a community makes a huge difference in how significantly job displacement impacts that area. 25 mega-cities, or the nation’s largest cities with the most dynamic economies, like San Francisco, Chicago, or Atlanta, house 96 million people and have generated most job growth since the Great Recession. These same cities could capture 60% of US job growth through 2030.  To contrast, 54 trailing or more mid-sized cities, such as Yuba City, El Paso, Texas, or Flint, Michigan and roughly 2,000 rural counties, which collectively house 78 million people, have shrinking workforces, lower educational attainment, and higher unemployment. These cities are positioned for modest job gains, but rural counties could see a decade of flat or even negative growth.
  • Some occupations are at high risk for displacement while others will change and grow. Office support, food service, transportation and logistics, and customer service roles are at high risk of displacement in the next round of automation. At the same time, the economy will continue to create jobs, particularly roles in healthcare, STEM fields, and business services, as well as work requiring personal interaction. These changes will be uneven with new jobs appearing in some place and not others – there will be challenges in addressing these mismatches in different localities and workers will need help gaining new skills.
  • Labor market outcomes already vary across demographic groups and automation could amplify these patterns. Individuals with a high school degree or less are four times more likely to hold highly automatable jobs than those with bachelor’s degrees. Hispanic and African-American workers may be hit the hardest, with up to 12 million displaced. Nearly 15 million jobs held by young people could be lost, requiring new actions around creating career pathways for today’s students and young workers. Workers over 50 hold an additional 11.5 million at-risk jobs. Finally, middle wage jobs may shrink as growth concentrates at the high and low ends of the wage scale.
Valley Vision and SETA are partnering to prevent displacement of high-risk occupations.

Where is the Sacramento region in all of this? In the McKinsey research, metropolitan Sacramento is considered a stable city – in league with other comparable cities such as Kansas City, Fresno, Stockton, Birmingham, Alabama, Indianapolis, Indiana, and many others. These cities fall between the growth of mega-cities and the risk of trailing cities and rural areas. The Brookings Institution categorized us similarly when they did an economic assessment of our region last year and came to some similar findings about our region’s need to prepare workers for a digital future. Brookings noted that we are lagging in our attainment of digital skills. The need for digital skills is increasing significantly at all job levels, but our workers are behind in the attainment of digital skills and there are disparities across demographic groups in learning these skills, with Hispanic and African-Americans falling the furthest behind.

All signs point to the need to address these realities today. Valley Vision has been actively working to create dialogue, alignment, and action to prepare us for a digital and automated future for our regional employers, education systems, and communities. We are excited to announce a new effort to address regional Future of Work challenges. Valley Vision is working with the four Capital Region Workforce Development Boards, including the Sacramento Employment and Training Agency (SETA), Golden Sierra, Yolo County, and North Central Counties Consortium to develop our own regional analysis of high-risk occupational profiles. Much like the McKinsey report outlined, different occupations and demographic groups will be impacted differently by job displacement due to automation and other technologies. We will create a much deeper understanding of how Sacramento will be affected by these differences by defining and quantifying high-risk occupations in this region. We will be able to pinpoint the risk that our region faces when it comes to displacement and use this research to develop lay-off aversion, education, and job training strategies. This cutting-edge research will provide valuable insight and help us move past our worries about the future and move towards taking action to improve our opportunities and economy.

Valley Vision has already been active with Future of Work issues and our new project will get us to the next level. Some of the key actions we’ve taken so far:

  • We have been working with the four Capital Region Workforce Development Boards on a Future of Work initiative to understand the shape and dimensions of these changes in the Capital region since 2017. Starting with forums in Yolo, El Dorado, Yuba, and Sacramento counties, Valley Vision reviewed the preeminent research from across the country exploring these changes in the nation and used the findings to create priorities with community partners from business, education, workforce, and others.
  • In May this year, we worked in partnership with the regional Workforce Development Boards to create the Future Focus event – bringing a national futurist speaker to the region to address the coming challenges.
  • We have initiated a Digital Skills Initiative to address the gap in digital skills and ready workers for the future. Through this work we are developing strategies to prepare the workforce for the future of work as part of the regional Prosperity Strategy in partnerhship with the Sacramento Area Council of Governments (SACOG), the Greater Sacramento Economic Council, and the Sacramento Metro Chamber.
  • As part of our Digital Skill focus, we are part of the Sacramento Digital Inclusion Coalition to expanding digital equity in the region.

The Future of Work will change the dimensions of our economy and impact the opportunities throughout our nation and region. In the next few months, Valley Vision will be sharing a great deal of information about how we can best prepare for this disruption. To keep up with Valley Vision’s work, subscribe to our Vantage Point email newsletter!

Evan Schmidt is Valley Vision’s Senior Director working on the Public Opinion Surveying initiative and projects in the Healthy Communities and 21st Century Workforce strategy areas.

Age Matters Across the Issues

From the Research Unit: What are the core issues across age demographics in the Capital Region?

Age matters when it comes to our day-to-day experiences and the perspectives that we hold. Valley Vision’s Research Unit is developing a series of research briefs profiling the unique views of different age demographics by drawing from our public opinion polling series.  We have been conducting public opinion polls, in partnership with Sacramento State, Institute for Social Research (ISR) since 2017 – looking at Capital Region residents’ priorities, values, experiences, and preferences on Civic Amenities, Transportation, Quality of Life, and the Environment. For our upcoming research profiles, we’ve pulled out data points from each age demographic to dive deeper and look at how our polling data relates to other research for each generation. We will be exploring the generations, defined as: Gen Z and Millennials (aged 18-38); Gen X (aged 39-54); and Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation (aged 55+). Here are some samplings of age-related issues that we will analyze with our upcoming research profiles.

According to our Livability Poll, Gen Z and Millennials are oriented towards housing affordability and access to opportunity when determining where they want to live. When asked their top considerations in their choice of residence, Gen Z and Millennials cited “it is an affordable place to live” (54%), “access to high quality jobs” (50%) as the most important factors. Additionally, Gen Z and Millennials are the most mobile, saying that they are most likely to have moved within the last three years and are most likely to move within the next three years when compared with other generations. A recent study by The National Association of Realtors looked at where Millennials want to live across the nation. They found that the most popular city for Millennials in California is not Sacramento, not San Francisco, not LA, but… (wait for it)….Bakersfield. Why? Because Bakersfield is the most affordable metro in the state. What can Sacramento learn? We will have to earn Millennial and Gen Z’s residency (and prevent their flight to Bakersfield) by providing affordable neighborhoods and employment opportunities. 

Photo credit: The Katchet Life. Mural by Tysan Throbe

Our polls show that Gen X, now in their late 30s to early 50s, are oriented towards family amenities – like high quality and nearby public schools, parks, and youth programs. Gen Xers in the Capital Region prefers suburban communities more strongly than other age demographics and are more likely to participate in local community activities like art shows and youth sports. In our expert roundtables about housing and livability, participants agreed that meeting the needs of families downtown is key to keeping our downtowns vibrant. This is consistent with other research findings. Designing for children translates to designing people-friendly spaces that are walkable, safe, and attractive, according to CityLab. With the City of Sacramento Unified School District in financial crisis, can we ensure that downtown remains a viable location for families now and in the future?

Those 55 and over are also a significant portion of the population with their own unique perspectives and needs. As featured in a recent Sacramento Bee article, by 2030, the 60-and-over population will be 40 percent larger in California than it is now, according to the California Department of Aging. Seniors will be a larger share of the population than kids under the age of 18 by 2036, the state projects. Additionally, a recent homeless count found that one in five homeless individuals in Sacramento county are 55 or over. This is highly concerning and heartbreaking, especially with the unique health care and other needs of the elderly. Our polls show that those 55+ are more likely than other generations to move because they are looking for cheaper rent (15% vs. less than 10% for other generations), and are looking for a variety of housing choices (41% want a greater variety compared to 27% or less of other generations). How do we ensure that our communities are properly caring for the unique needs of our growing senior population?

In order to build equitable, prosperous, and sustainable communities now and in the future, we must take into account the unique needs across generations. These issues and more will be further explored in the coming months as we dive deeper into the age demographics of our four public opinion polls to date. Stay tuned!

To keep up with Valley Vision’s work to advance livability in the Sacramento region, subscribe to our Vantage Point email newsletter!

Evan Schmidt is Valley Vision’s Senior Director working on the Public Opinion Surveying initiative and projects in the Healthy Communities and 21st Century Workforce strategy areas.

Citations

Fighting Fire with Innovative Partnerships

In 2019, wildfires continue to threaten our quality of life here in California. Annual wildfire-related deaths grew tenfold between 2016 and 2018. Toxic smoke from these fires threatens public health and economic activity. Fire suppression, past logging practices, and climate change have turned forests into vast thickets of tinder, ripe for the next devastating mega-fire. And the fires are getting worse.

It’s critical that decision-makers see and understand this problem – and potential solutions – firsthand. On June 28th, The Sacramento Area Council of Governments (SACOG), our region’s transportation and land use planning agency, hosted an excursion for regional elected officials and partner agencies to learn about wildfire and forest management projects across El Dorado County. The day-long tour was organized by David Shabazian, project lead for the Rural-Urban Connections Strategy (RUCS), and an important accompaniment to SACOG’s toolset for boosting rural economies and preserving natural lands.

El Dorado County Supervisor Brian Veerkamp, a fifth generation county resident and former fire chief, guided our tour bus past expansive thickets of brush on our way north from our launch point at Apple Hill past Coloma and Georgetown. Supervisor Veerkamp acknowledged that many residents use these small trees and underbrush to maintain privacy, but affirmed that the biomass “needs to be removed in order to protect us all.”

Our first stop was at the UC Berkeley-run Blodgett Forest Research Station, where Station Manager Dr. Robert York steered us through several sections of forest where researchers test controlled burning, vegetation management, and approaches to regrowth across nearly 4,400 acres. For over 50 years, research at Blodgett has been largely funded through the annual sale of timber harvested sustainably on its grounds. It is the only research site of its kind in California, and has produced over 400 publications on fire ecology, atmospheric chemistry, hydrology, and more.

The King Fire in 2014 scorched over 97,000 acres of El Dorado County forestland.

In 2014, the King Fire burned nearly 9% of the total area of El Dorado County. Our second stop on the tour was to a sobering viewpoint of the King Fire “burn scar” further along Wentworth Springs Road, where the soil is gray and blackened trees dot the landscape as far as the eye can see. Soil scientist Marie Davis explained the devastating after-effects that fires have on watersheds, like nutrient-rich topsoil getting washed into rivers, which slows recovery and clogs up dam infrastructure.

Our final stop was at Big Hill Lookout northwest of Kyburz, where we were treated to a view of SMUD’s Upper American River Project, which generates hydropower via an extensive series of lakes, dams, and powerhouses. The project generates 1.6 billion kilowatt hours of electricity per year – 15% of Sacramento County’s total power demand.

There are other innovative forest management efforts right here in our region that serve as important models for replication or expansion. The French Meadows Project brings together the Placer County Water Agency, The Nature Conservancy, Sierra Nevada Conservancy, County of Placer, American River Conservancy, and UC Merced’s Sierra Nevada Research Institute to restore forests and protect water supply on 27,000 acres of mainly U.S. Forest Service-owned land in Placer County. The project, nested within the Sierra Nevada Conservancy’s Tahoe-Central Sierra Initiative, is funded by a shared investment from the federal government through the Forest Service, state government through the Sierra Nevada Conservancy, and local sources like PCWA, the County of Placer, and private donors. French Meadows’ unique partnership and governance model is allowing the restoration project to advance rapidly to an implementation stage and serve as a model for accelerating ecologically-based forest management across the Sierra Nevada.

Big Hill Lookout near Kyburz was a great viewing place to see the network of lakes and dams that make up SMUD’s Upper American River Project.

Oregon-based Blue Forest Conservation has also introduced a unique partnership and financing model to fund a forest restoration pilot project in 15,000 acres across the North Yuba River watershed. Blue Forest and the World Resources Institute developed a Forest Resilience Bond powered by private capital, which funds the upfront costs of restoration while the Yuba Water Agency and others reimburse investors over time. The result of this financing model is a $4.6 Million project that can begin implementation rapidly with in-kind permitting and planning support from Tahoe National Forest personnel. Both the French Meadows and North Yuba River projects benefit from new collaborations between partners that haven’t historically worked together, unique and flexible financing models that allow for earlier implementation, and the latest scientific findings about treating forests in an ecological manner.

Thanks to David Shabazian for organizing the tour, as well as his team at SACOG who helped put the excursion together – Lynnea Ormiston, Christina Lokke, Rosie Ramos, Renée DeVere-Oki, Kacey Lizon, and CEO James Corless. Thanks also to the tour sponsors – Sierra Nevada Conservancy, SMUD, El Dorado Irrigation District, and Sierra Pacific Industries. To keep up with Valley Vision’s work to advance livability in the Sacramento region, subscribe to our Vantage Point email newsletter!

Adrian Rehn is a Valley Vision Project Manager overseeing the Cleaner Air Partnership and Valley Vision’s online communications.

Coast to Coast: Chloe Heads to Graduate School

It’s a stale joke now, but I’ll be honest – the first time I heard Bill mention Valley Vision when I was in high school, I thought he provided eye care services. When I was corrected and told it was a nonprofit, I still thought it was a nonprofit eye care organization. Who knew that I’d later be inducted into the Valley Vision family and actually become proficient at explaining what Valley Vision is about (to the various people who call the office asking to speak to an optometrist, no less).  

But alas, all good things must come to an end. I’ll be leaving Sacramento soon to receive my Masters in Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University’s Fletcher School to continue my education in International Relations for Humanitarian Aid and Human Security. As excited as I am to be starting this new chapter of my life in Boston, it’s a bittersweet goodbye. Every experience I’ve had at Valley Vision has reinforced the fact that there are so many people around us not only to help, but also who are dedicated to helping others.

I got to sit down with dedicated Old Sacramento Waterfront stakeholders who spent hours around a table brainstorming how to improve the district and support local businesses. I helped organize a conference for 200 people who were passionate about leveraging funds for Opportunity Zones. I attended a national summit, representing the Sacramento region and the EPIC Trail to learn about equitable development practices to improve residents’ quality of life across the country. I engaged with statewide economic development leaders to create a regions-up inclusive economic strategy with Lenny Mendonca, Director of GO-Biz. Just recently, I even got to contribute to the early stages of a new California For All campaign to improve disaster preparedness across the state with the Governor’s Office and California Volunteers. 

But how is a tiny team from Sacramento trying to enact systemic change and make a dent in these big problems? 

Well, some days it can feel like it’s a lot of talk. You go from meeting to meeting and wonder if you’ve actually helped anyone. On top of that, you might not have the perfect solution, you definitely can’t do it alone, and big ideas just take a lot of time and money that you don’t always have. Even in the best case scenario, you may not see change come about until decades later and people will have long forgotten about your contributions. But it doesn’t matter. We aren’t motivated by shiny awards and we aren’t easily discouraged. Our mission is to improve people’s quality of life and I can guarantee that we all have this dogged determination to make it happen. That’s what Valley Vision is about.

This vibrant region is filled with people who are devoted to growing the food we eat, improving the quality of air we breathe, insuring the success of local businesses, and providing care and services to those in need. There are so many compassionate individuals here that made me realize that this is truly work worth doing and I will forever be grateful to them for instilling in me this community-based mindset that I will take abroad. No matter where I go, the love I have for this region and this city will come with me.

Chloe Pan was Executive Assistant to Valley Vision CEO Bill Mueller and Project Lead for the EPIC Trail.

My Valley Vision Experience

Mekdem Wright served a 12-month term as a Student Board Fellow with Valley Vision while pursuing his MBA at the UC Davis Graduate School of Management, through the GSM’s Nonprofit Board Fellowship Program. He has recently graduated with his MBA and completed his board fellowship, and reflects on the experience here.

This past year with Valley Vision has been an invaluable experience for me. I’ve learned about the responsibilities of nonprofit board service and developed an understanding of how to manage and operate a nonprofit. I’ve learned an effective approach to economic, environmental and social progress. I’ve connected to this community – my community.

Learning Valley Vision’s Collective Impact Approach – My fellowship began with a one-on-one board orientation with CEO Bill Mueller and included a crash-course in who Valley Vision is, what they do, how they do it, and why they do it. He taught me their “Collective Impact” approach – how they connect and engage the regional ecosystem to mobilize towards economic, environmental and social progress. Wherever there are gaps in these change efforts, Valley Vision seeks not to fill the gaps themselves but instead to pull and “stitch” the regional network together, working through collaborative cross-sector partnerships and coalitions. They always have a positive exit strategy in mind, intending to eventually hand-off the work to others. This was profound to me at the time and counter to most of the conventional business school teachings I was receiving. In my time with Valley Vision, I saw this theory in practice time and time again and the success it produced. Collective Impact has now become my default approach and way of thinking about change.

A Seat at the Table – As a Board Fellow, I was humbled and honored to have a seat among the top CEOs, chancellors, presidents and executives of the region’s anchor institutions. We came together over (yummy!) food and drink to discuss important issues in the community including:

  • the Aggie Square Innovation Hub and improving connectivity between UC Davis and industry,
  • K-12 education in Sacramento County,
  • safety and equity in the Sacramento region in light of the Stephon Clark tragedy, and
  • regionally-driven, state-wide inclusive economic development strategies.

The insights I gained from these discussions were extremely valuable in developing my own understanding of effective strategies and tactics for regional change and the challenges and barriers that come with them.

Photo Credit: Brian Baer, California Rice Commission

Connecting to Valley Vision’s Network – As a backbone organization creating collective impact, Valley Vision is connected to a powerful leadership network that starts with its board of directors and expands out to over 6,000 leaders across Northern California. As a board fellow I had the privilege of accessing this network and developing my own personal network. Most notably, I helped Valley Vision to conduct a Wildfire Smoke Impacts Assessment which involved having one-on-one dialogue with top leaders from the region’s businesses, schools, universities, utilities, and governments.

I’ve grown to call this Capital region my home since moving here in 2016, and my experience with Valley Vision has played a big part in helping it to feel like home. Valley Vision has helped me to build my professional network, better understand the community, and embed myself within the community. I’m unsure where my next step will take me, but I hope to remain a part of this community and continue to help to make it more equitable and livable in whatever capacity I can.

Lastly but certainly not least, I want to thank all the passionate and dedicated staff at Valley Vision – my friends, mentors, and fellow champions of change. You are all truly heroes and continually inspire me with the work you do and how you do it.

Mekdem Wright served a 12-month term as a Student Board Fellow with Valley Vision while pursuing his MBA at the UC Davis Graduate School of Management, through the GSM’s Nonprofit Board Fellowship Program. He has recently graduated with his MBA and completed his board fellowship.

Promoting Opportunity for All Californians

For the past 10 years, a group of regional business, government and nonprofit leaders have been gathering to answer a big question: In a state as big and diverse as California, how can we all come together and get behind a focused set of economic growth strategies with the power to build a California for all? As we can all relate, this is a monumental challenge in a state that is home both to great poverty and inequity, as well as immense wealth and ingenuity.

We knew the answer could come if we created a place open to all Californians to problem-solve. Where business, environmental groups, entrepreneurs, educators, labor, big corporations, nonprofits, and community organizations could each suspend their differences and look instead for areas we could agree upon on some of the toughest economic, equity, and environmental issues we face. The California Economic Summit, co-hosted by California Forward and the California Stewardship Network, was our answer. Over the past seven years, thousands of civic leaders from all parts of California have joined together to focus on building more affordable housing, improving the skills of middle income workers, and making key infrastructure more resilient to disaster, among many other areas. We have made great progress in some areas, changing policy and increasing investment in the workforce arena in particular, but not enough in others.

Sacramento has hosted many of these Summit conversations, and Valley Vision and our partners have played host. Perhaps you have been to one of these 2-day working meetings. Governor Gavin Newsom is proud to say he has been to six of the previous seven Summits, but he had to miss the last Summit in Sonoma due to the wildfires in both Northern and Southern California. He is co-sponsoring the next Summit set for November 7-8 in Fresno saying he will be there along with many of his senior staff, where he intends to lay out some of his economic strategies.

Since 2011, the California Economic Summit has been the leading forum for California’s regions to problem-solve together. Summit organizers California Forward and the California Stewardship Network are merging to power prosperity across the State.

To place even more horsepower behind this “regions up” inclusive growth strategy for the state, the California Forward and California Stewardship Network organizations announced this week that they are combining forces, growing staff and adding capabilities to push this effort forward. What I call the new “California Forward 2.0” has already recruited a major round of additional funding from the Morgan Family Foundation and The James Irvine Foundation, and is growing their staff team.

While we often work behind the scenes with little fanfare, it’s important to let you know that the Valley Vision board and staff team has dedicated themselves for years to working with others to create the conditions necessary for this inclusive growth agenda for California to happen, and even more importantly, to have the level of support and buy-in that can activate new business, housing, workforce, and infrastructure policies and investments across the entire state so that we see real results. Read more here about the combination announcement and what lies ahead. We hope you join us in the call for a more prosperous, just, and sustainable California for all at this year’s Summit on November 7-8 and beyond.

Bill Mueller was Valley Vision’s Chief Executive.

Featured photo credit: Habitat for Humanity

Farm-to-Fork LIVE Travels to Washington D.C.

This year, Valley Vision and Honey Agency hosted a special Farm-to-Fork-Live event in Washington, DC as part of the Sacramento Metro Chamber’s annual Cap-to-Cap (Capitol to Capitol) program. Through our partnership with Visit Sacramento, Farm-to-Fork-Live D.C. showcased the region’s special assets and innovative approaches on critical food and ag system issues to both local and national leadership.

Farm-to-Fork-Live is a speakers series program managed by Valley Vision and Honey Agency as part of the region’s Farm to Fork program. This year we took the show on the road to Washington, that included a speaker panel and reception held at the beautiful Whitten Building atrium at USDA headquarters.

More than 70 representatives from federal agencies, congressional offices and Cap to Cap participants – including many local elected officials – heard about the priority policy issues carried by the Cap-to- Cap Food and Ag Committee to DC; how the local partners are pushing forward solutions that will improve the viability and sustainability of our food and ag economy and can inform other communities around the country; and how we can work with our federal partners and congressional delegation to move the needles on priorities. Our policy priorities this year are: accelerating ag technologies through R&D and improved rural broadband infrastructure and access, especially given the low levels of connectivity across the region; training the next generation of farmers and farm managers through apprenticeships and other creative programs; given that the average age of a farmer is almost 60 years; and facilitating institutional procurement of local, healthy foods for our schools, hospitals and other institutions, which also support local growers and the food economy through Farm to School and other USDA/federal programs.

U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Assistant Secretary for Congressional Relations: Ken Barbic, welcomed the group and Bill Mueller, CEO, Valley Vision, framed the importance of the issues and the work being done. Meghan Phillip, Owner of Honey, moderated the panel of experts that included Brandon Minto, UC Davis, David Ogilvie, Silt Winery and Wilson Vineyards, and Trish Kelly, Valley Vision.

Each guest received a special Farm-to-Fork Live bag filled with products from the Sacramento region. A big thank you to all the companies that helped contribute these items including Raley’s, Visit Sacramento, California Rice, California Walnut Association, California Almond Association, and Vacaville Fruit Company.

This event was made possible by our presenting sponsor UC Davis. With additional support from Foster Farms, and partnering organizations including the Sacramento Metro Chamber, Visit Sacramento, and Silt Winery.

A special thank you to Bryan Zulko, National Director- Communities at U.S. Department of Agriculture, Jim Barham, USDA Rural Development agricultural economist and food systems specialist, and Tricia Kovacs, Acting Associate Deputy Administrator at USDA Agricultural Marketing Service for their support in planning this event.

Emma Koefoed is a Valley Vision Project Associate contributing to the 21st Century Workforce and Food and Agriculture impact areas. 

Future Focus Business Summit – How Will We Reinvent the Workforce?

A story: The Human Genome Project launched in 1990 and it took seven years to get one percent of the project finished. When Human Genome scientists were asked if they were concerned about the rate of completion (would it take 700 years to complete?), they responded that now that they were one percent finished, they were almost done and it should only take 6.5 years to complete.

Why was that the case? Because there was a rate of 100 percent growth per year, so, going from zero to one percent was the slowest and most difficult growth period. With this in mind, they were able to complete the project in less than seven years, doubling their output each year until the on-time completion in 2003. This is noteworthy because it demonstrates how technology growth is evolving at an exponential rate. Unfortunately, humans adapt much slower. As a result, business learning and development often lags the rate of technology growth and can fall behind quickly. It is predicted that 40% of current S&P businesses will no longer exist by 2026. Which businesses will lose their revenue stream in the next seven years and who will gain market to take advantage of those who are going under? This is a critical issue for business and for our regional economy.

These are examples and insights that Keynote Speaker, Patrick Schwerdtfeger, a futurist and expert in business trends, brought to the Future Focus Business Summit on May 15th in Roseville, hosted by the four regional Workforce Development Boards and produced by Valley Vision.

Patrick emphasized to the audience of 250 business and community leaders that current technology trends reveal where new technologies might be disruptive. For example, driverless cars are already being used in agriculture and mining – it is just a matter of time until these technologies gain enough traction to be used for commercial trucking and even city driving. Repetitive jobs, whether they are manual or cognitive, are already being replaced with automation or algorithms – this trend will only increase. Blockchain has architected trust across a supply chain by creating a chain of unhackable software. This is enabling the development of smart contracts and potentially eliminating the need for many management and tracking jobs across shipping and other related industries.

Tracking these trends can help business deploy effective strategies to harness innovation. Disruptive innovation, by definition, blows up existing business models rather than improves on existing models. This often happens in the periphery of a market. Systems are disrupted when business solves a problem in one market only to apply it to another, displacing other businesses. Patrick gave some key pieces of advice for business in this environment, including:

Look up, look down, look side to side: Look up to protect your core revenue stream in your primary market space. Look down to find the hard-to-please market segment that will require experiments and innovation to solve their problems. Look side-to-side to monitor adjacent markets – finding your own unexpected market space as well as avoiding unanticipated competitors.

Think bigger: “It’s not an experiment if you know it is going to work.” – Jeff Bezos.To innovate, you must be willing to fail. Additionally, there is more and more leverage in the system every year. The responsibility is on us – watch where innovations are happening, and run towards technology to optimize technology for the benefit of your business.

The Future Focus Summit brought Patrick to the region to help inspire and inform business to keep pace in an ever-changing environment. Patrick provided high level data and trends, but he wasn’t the only feature. There was a panel of regional business leaders who described how some of the major sectors in the region are adapting to technology changes. AJ Jacobs, Chief Information Security Officer at SMUD; Kristie Griffin, Head of Talent Management and Strategy at Stanford Healthcare; and Kevin McGrew, Director of Quality Management of Siemens noted that in regional manufacturing, energy, and health sectors, practitioners are significantly changing their business models to integrate cybersecurity, automate some of their processes, advance innovation in design practices and service delivery.

Aneesh Raman, Senior Advisor for Strategy and External Affairs, CA Governor’s Office of Business and Economic Development, closed the Summit. As the child of an immigrant, Aneesh is driven by the American promise of social mobility. His interest, from his position at the Governor’s Office, is to provide support and guidance to address how technology can be a vehicle for social mobility and not contribute to existing inequities. Supporting a forward-looking, inclusive economy is a core priority of Governor Newsom and he is supporting it, in part, through a new Future of Work Commission and through a new economic development initiative, Regions Rise Together. This initiative will support regional economic development plans that reflect the unique needs and goals of each region in California. Assemblyman Kevin Kiley, also addressed the role of government in supporting workforce development – encouraging government agencies to stay out of the way of successful business enterprise.

The four region Workforce Development Board organized the Future Focus Business Summit to prepare business for an uncertain future. Valley Vision produced the event because we are committed to supporting a future-ready Capital region. Our speakers and panelist helped move us from fearing a dystopian future to understanding leverage points and considering concrete ways that individual businesses and agencies can prepare for the coming changes. Local systems, research, and actions can help manage the changes that are needed. Read more about Valley Vision’s work and check out some of the services that Workforce Development Boards provide at wearebettertogether.co. 

To keep up with Valley Vision’s work to advance livability in the Sacramento region, subscribe to our Vantage Point email newsletter!

Evan Schmidt is Valley Vision’s Senior Director working on the Public Opinion Surveying initiative and projects in the Healthy Communities and 21st Century Workforce strategy areas.

My First Cap-to-Cap: A Whirlwind 5 Days in D.C.

I’ve heard a lot about “Cap-to-Cap” from colleagues, friends, and others since moving to Sacramento nearly five years ago. I’ve heard that it’s a massive undertaking to secure funding and advance policy to improve our region. I’ve heard that it’s the best networking opportunity around. I’ve heard that it’s a rite of passage for Sacramento’s rising leaders. The reality is that it’s all of those things…and more.

The Metro Chamber’s annual “Capitol-to-Capitol” program is the premier opportunity for the Sacramento region to come together to inform federal investments and policy to benefit our communities. It’s been organized by the Metro Chamber every year since 1970. Next year happens to be the 50th Anniversary.

I served as one of four co-leaders of the Air Quality team (one of 11 issue-focused teams such as workforce development, food and agriculture, and more), which included 22 regional air pollution regulators, business leaders, environmental advocates, and elected officials. The Cleaner Air Partnership, the unique public-private coalition managed by Valley Vision in partnership with the Sacramento Metro Chamber and Breathe California Sacramento Region, has managed the Cap-to-Cap Air Quality team’s efforts since 2007 and helped us all make significant strides toward cleaner air. Our “asks” in 2019 were communicated through two comprehensive Issue Papers (on clean transportation and forest management/wildfire) which guided each of our appointments, and which can be accessed on the Valley Vision website.

The Cap-to-Cap Air Quality team had 20 advocacy appointments over 2.5 days

I am awed by the effort it must take to pull off Cap-to-Cap. The Metro Chamber staff scheduled hundreds of meetings beyond our team’s 20 advocacy appointments with federal elected officials, committee staff, and agency representatives. In the interest of giving Cap-to-Cap newbies and interested parties a glimpse of the day-to-day happenings of Cap-to-Cap, here’s an attempt to recap each day’s events as they unfolded. Here goes:

Saturday, May 4th: Saturday is the main departure date for most of the Cap-to-Cap participants. I had an early morning flight from Sacramento International Airport which must have had 100 Cap-to-Cappers on it! Flying to the East Coast is always strange because you lose hours of your day, but the Metro Chamber has a cleverly organized welcome reception that kicked off right as we arrived at the classy Mayflower Hotel from the Dulles Airport in Washington, D.C. Festivities ensued and there was much discussion of our anticipated events and meetings. A few of us younger folks went to a nearby shindig at a bar courtesy of the Metro Chamber’s young professionals group, Metro EDGE, which was also a blast.

Sunday, May 5th: Remember how a few of us went out for drinks the previous night? On Sunday, we had an 8:30 AM meeting of the Cap-to-Cap Steering Committee, made up of Metro Chamber leadership and the co-leads of each team. An 8:30 AM Eastern start time is equivalent to 5:30 AM Pacific, so suffice it to say, it was definitely a coffee morning! There was a FOX40 crew onsite to cover the program, and Air Quality team co-lead Meg Arnold filmed a TV spot about our wildfire and forest management efforts in 2019. Much of my day was spent running errands to prep for the following three days of advocacy – including multiple FedEx trips – before taking an all-delegation photo inside the Mayflower’s hallways. In past years this photo has been taken on Capitol Mall, but rain was a factor. Cap-to-Cap Chair Mac Clemmens of Digital Deployment then hosted a Chair’s Reception on the rooftop of the beautiful 101 Constitution building, with epic views of the Capitol.

Monday, May 6th: The first day of meetings on Capitol Hill kicked off with a welcome breakfast and remarks from Cap-to-Cap leadership, Congressman Ami Bera, and a very special guest in Amy Walters, National Editor of The Cook Political Report. Amy delivered some incredibly savvy political analysis, including Election 2020 predictions, before our 22-member Air Quality team departed for our first meetings via the legendary Washington, D.C., Metro transit system (thanks SacRT for those Metro passes!). Over the course of the whirlwind day, our team held 30-minute meetings with Congressman Ami Bera and his staff; the House Natural Resources Committee, Subcommittee on National Parks, Forests & Public Lands (Minority); the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, Subcommittee on Environment and Climate Change (Majority/Minority); the Office of Congressman Tom McClintock; Congressman John Garamendi; the Environmental Protection Agency – Office of Air and Radiation; the Office of Senator Ed Markey; and with Congresswoman Doris Matsui and her staff. Whew! From there, I booked it to the special Farm-to-Fork Live event at USDA, which was organized by Valley Vision and Honey Agency to elevate our region’s food and agriculture leadership at Cap-to-Cap. That evening, Woodland City Councilmember Tom Stallard led nearly 50 Cap-to-Cap delegates on a legendary 3.5 hour walking tour of Washington, D.C.’s monuments and war memorials. This tradition started at Cap-to-Cap 1996 when Tom and now-SMUD Board member Rob Kerth went on an evening stroll to talk through some confounding transportation funding issues, and ended up walking the entirety of the Mall past all of its various monuments. It has been a tradition ever since! I have to say the most powerful monuments to me are the Korean War Memorial and the Lincoln Memorial, but all are spectacular, especially when lit up at night.

Woodland City Councilmember Tom Stallard’s nighttime monuments tour was truly outstanding

Tuesday, May 7th: Tuesday morning began with the Congressional Leadership Forum hosted by Congresswoman Doris Matsui. The keynote speaker was a true icon – Madeleine K. Albright, the first female Secretary of State under President Clinton. She was razor-sharp as she took on topics such as globalism, international trade, defense, and more and answered audience questions. From there, we departed for the Hill (again on public transit) for a series of impactful meetings with the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works (Majority); the Office of Senator Kamala Harris; the Office of Congressman Doug LaMalfa; the Office of Senator Dianne Feinstein; the House Committee on Natural Resources, Subcommittee on National Parks, Forests & Public Lands (Majority); and the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition & Forestry, Subcommittee on Conservation, Forestry & Natural Resources. A highlight was in the hallway of the lively Dirksen Senate Office Building, where political nerds like me geek out. Senator Mitt Romney and company apparently walked right behind me as I was fumbling around with my smartphone, and less than 10 minutes later Senator Tim Kaine sped past me as he talked to reporters. It’s really cool to see these people in action, and I got a solid video of the brief encounter. After a long second day of meetings the team headed back to the Mayflower Hotel to get ready for the Delegation Gala, the classiest event of the program. By this time, my nicest suit was getting a workout! The gala itself was held at the International Spy Museum’s slick new location, which was not yet open to the public and had breathtaking views of D.C.’s utilitarian skyline. I would be remiss not to include the excellent video from Presenting Sponsor Western Health Advantage, with a nice cameo by Valley Vision CEO Bill Mueller toward the end. Eating, drinking, dancing, and chatting ensued and it was a great way to ‘cap’ the program.

Wednesday, May 8th: Wednesday at Cap-to-Cap is generally the short day for meetings on the Hill. Most folks fly home on this day, with a few staying in D.C. to do more exploring, visit friends and family, or hold additional meetings. Program Chair Mac Clemmens hosted a Cybersecurity Briefing in the morning with prominent defense experts as well as Congressman John Garamendi in his capacity as Chairman of the aptly-named ‘Readiness Subcommittee.’ A key takeaway – your smartphone is likely your least protected device, so you should do everything you can to secure it! The Air Quality team had meetings with the nonprofit Center for Climate and Energy Solutions as well as the U.S. Forest Service Office of Legislative Affairs later in the morning. Both went very well and generated a great deal of follow-up activity, as with our other meetings. I had some precious downtime between our last meeting and my departure flight back to the West Coast, which was used for some much-needed email catch-up and honestly a nice nap.

Reflecting on the whirlwind five days I spent in D.C., I am thankful to Valley Vision for giving me this opportunity not just to attend Cap-to-Cap, but to co-lead a high-performing team in my first year participating. It is experiences like these – connecting with new people, navigating a new geography, and being faced with entirely new situations that fosters personal growth and self-awareness.

The Mayflower Hotel’s downstairs bar was the scene of much late-night planning and networking

2019 Cap-to-Cap Chair Mac Clemmens did an outstanding job and set the stage for 2020 Co-Chairs Kierstan DeLong and Brian King to be successful in leading the program’s 50th Anniversary, with Sutter Health leading the sponsorship charge. I’d also like to thank Michael Faust, Susan Harris-Brazelton, and the amazing Metro Chamber staff who put in so much work to ensure a successful program – CEO Amanda Blackwood, Khaim Morton, John Jacobs, Andrea Ellinghouse, and particularly Chloe Park for scheduling meetings across all of the teams. You guys rock! If you’re interested in attending next year, I hope to see you there!

To keep up with Valley Vision’s work to advance livability in the Sacramento region, subscribe to our Vantage Point email newsletter!

Adrian Rehn is a Valley Vision Project Manager overseeing the Cleaner Air Partnership and Valley Vision’s online communications.

TechEdge 2019: Innovation and the Internet of Things

Last week, a room full of innovators, entrepreneurs, tech executives, networkers, and overall enthusiasts of tech and innovation within our region was hosted by the Sacramento Business Journal for the annual TechEdge at the Sheraton Grand Hotel. The conference kicked off with Congresswoman Doris Matsui setting the tone – identifying the disruption of tech as central to everything, because it touches everything that we do (i.e. the Internet of Things or IoT).

The Congresswoman further emphasized that as we gear up to be one of the first cities to offer 5G wireless technology,  we must expand access to ensure that everyone in our community has the means to participate in the world via the Internet. Mayor Darrell Steinberg also spoke on the city’s economic divide, but that Sacramento is open to the possibilities connected to the coming economic revolution that technology is bringing.

A series of topical panels with impressive speakers discussed startup funding, Sacramento and the future of mobility, new media technology, the intersection of sports, business, gaming and technology, the Internet of Things (IoT), government efforts to champion innovation through technology, the future of medical technology, and AgTech in the region.

Congresswoman Doris Matsui welcomed attendees

Four leading companies were recognized as this year’s game changers: Engage3 (an artificial intelligence (AI) and pricing innovator), Neurovision(surgical products), Rhombus Systems (security video surveillance), and Thinci (AI). These local companies have recently received significant resources to scale and grow business and jobs. Key themes of the day included entrepreneurship, disruption, utility of technology, access and adoption, and using technology to advance our region’s competitive edge across all industries.

The Sacramento Business Journal will provide articles and transcripts of the panel discussions in their May 3 print edition. If you’d like to learn more about Valley Vision’s work in the Innovation and Infrastructure space, please visit our website.

Sonia Duenas is a Valley Vision Project Associate contributing to the 21st Century Workforce, Innovation and Infrastructure, and Leadership & Civic Engagement impact areas.

Introducing Monthly Reports from Our Research Unit

Valley Vision has always been known as a research provider as well as a catalyst for and driver of action for the region. In the last couple years, we have been adding capacity to our research capabilities.

One of the main ways is through our public opinion polling. Since 2017, in partnership with Sac State’s Institute for Social Research, we’ve released three polls: civic amenities, transportation, and our benchmark livability poll. These polls have enabled us to access direct information from regional residents about their priorities, values, and experiences on pressing topics within the region.

Valley Vision’s public opinion surveys are driving action across the region.

We’ve used these data to help inform regional decision-making – like advancing transportation investment priorities at a time when the Sacramento Area Council of Governments (SACOG) is planning for the next 25 years through the Metropolitan Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy planning process, or highlighting the divisions across the region when it comes to having a vision on how we should grow and house our residents. Using polling data to guide conversations and inform policy-making and investments is a core element of Valley Vision’s value proposition to the region – we unite the region by using research and action to deliver on triple bottom line values like environmental sustainability, economic prosperity, and social equity.

That is why we are excited about our next poll, due for public release on May 16th on the environment. How important are environmental values to regional residents? Do residents support an increased role for government in protecting the environment? Do residents believe the effects of climate change are already happening? Find out by tuning in to our next poll. In addition to the data itself, we are excited about the communications campaign, created by 3fold Communications, who also created our Livability Poll campaign. These communications campaigns help get the word out about the data and ensure that community groups, decision-makers, and community members learn about the insights that are being uncovered.

Our Environmental Poll findings will be released on Thursday, May 16.

Public opinion polling isn’t the only research coming out of our Research Unit. For Valley Vision, supporting a talented workforce for the region is mission critical. To achieve this, we are advancing the Capital Region Workforce Action Plan – through which we conduct continuous research on the changing economy and the region’s high growth economic sectors, like construction or manufacturing. Working with the California Community Colleges Center of Excellence, we use research to identify where there are gaps between the skills that businesses need and the skills that workers can access in educational or workforce training. We are on the verge of releasing a new report on the Hospitality and Tourism sector. In addition to the research itself, we bring together business, education, workforce, and community partners to interpret the data, compare it to on-the-ground experiences, and identify key actions to meet the needs of the sector. Our Hospitality and Tourism Cluster meeting is coming up on April 26th at Raley Field to present the data and explore next actions. We are excited about sharing critical data on this sector and exploring with the community how we can create the talent that we need to support a thriving hospitality and tourism sector in this region. I hope you can join us!

Highlighting our research is an important way to stay on top of the pulse of the region. As the Director of Research at Valley Vision, I’m excited to start regular monthly blog reports from our Research Unit. I’ll highlight research that is coming out and dive into ours and others’ research every month to make those critical connections between data and action. Coming up next: I can’t wait to share the environmental poll data with you next month – stay tuned!

Evan Schmidt is Valley Vision’s Senior Director working on the Public Opinion Surveying initiative and projects in the Healthy Communities and 21st Century Workforce strategy areas.

FCC Chairman Gets a Taste of California’s Digital Divide

Photo credit: Douglas Taylor

In a quest to understand what the Digital Divide looks like from the vantage point of America’s farmers and rural residents, Federal Communications Chairman, Ajit Pai, spent time on the ground last week in the Sacramento region.

Hosted by Valley Vision and the Sacramento Metro Chamber, the Chairman visited agricultural sites in Yolo County and heard first-hand from farmers, business and community leaders about the Divide, literally 10 miles away (as the crow flies) from the state capitol of California – the fifth largest economy in the world. The tour of the region’s rich agricultural areas kicked off Monday morning at the Muller Ranch just outside of the City of Woodland. A group of about 20 regional, state and federal broadband experts and local business and community leaders was graciously hosted by ranch owner Frank Muller. Frank also serves as Chairman of the Board of Pacific Coast Producers and is a Member of the California State Food and Agriculture Board. In addition, his ranch serves as a site for Valley Vision’s Yolo County agricultural technology (AgTech) pilot funded by the California Emerging Technology Fund (CETF) and in partnership with California State University, Chico.

Frank welcomed the group and gave an overview of ranch operations, his role on State Ag Board and his work with Pacific Coast Producers. Muller Ranch grows diversified crops such as tomatoes, almonds, walnuts, grapes and vegetables on 10,000 acres in several different fields. Chairman Pai, dressed for a day in the fields in jeans and a hoodie, listened intently and engaged in the discussion as members of the group shared their individual stories. Frank gave examples of the impacts of the lack of high-speed internet, or broadband, from two perspectives. From the business side, the lack of broadband coverage in his fields inhibits the use of AgTech that can help farmers manage operations for increased resource efficiency and productivity.

Frank held up two pieces of equipment designed for the purpose of measuring water in the soil. The first, the reliable old tool that pulls a sample of soil that is analyzed for moisture by eye and touch. The second, a rod inserted into the ground with sensors on top that capture measurements for soil moisture and nitrogen level, which along with other data points, are uploaded to ‘the cloud’ for analysis and ability to apply accurate, real-time, prescriptive treatments. The return on investment of such technology is estimated to be 18-19 percent, according to Sunne Wright McPeak, President & CEO of CETF.

Frank described how this type of predictive analysis is the future of farming. The challenge for Frank, however, is access to a reliable broadband signal capable of uploading the information in real-time. Susan Strachan of CSU Chico’s Geographical Information Center, (which conducts broadband mapping for the California Public Utilities Commission), shared an overview of the Yolo County on-farm mobile broadband mapping project of 155 farms that she conducted for the AgTech Pilot and the results of tests on Muller Ranch. This granular mapping of coverage highlights where signals are clearly lacking as compared to higher level coverage maps. These types of tests and mapping help make broadband coverage and availability mapping much more accurate. This is vital for several reasons, including that eligibility for federal and state funding is based on the mapping data. This is the first project of its kind in the country. The Chairman also experienced first-hand the lack of cell phone coverage in Frank’s conference room, underscoring the disadvantage that ag businesses experience on a daily basis.

The second perspective Frank shared with the Chairman related to personal impacts of the lack of broadband. At his grandson’s home, a family with three school-age children who live a half-mile away, only one person at a time can effectively use the Internet at home. Fortunately, for his grandson, he has only to travel a half-mile away to his grandpa’s place to get online and get his homework done. But Frank and many others in community are concerned about those who aren’t quite as fortunate. The impact of the Digital Divide is felt heavily by those without reliable, high-speed internet access at home. How far will this Divide leave them behind in today’s digital economy?

The group then took a quick drive into the City of Woodland to visit AgStart, an innovative AgTech incubator where the group was welcomed by John Selep, President of AgStart; Leanna Sweha, Program Manager, AgStart; and Ken Hiatt, Assistant City Manager, City of Woodland. John provided an overview of the incubator, the programs, and participation in the VINE (Verde Innovation Network, funded by the U.S. Economic Development Administration i-6 Innovation grant), a partnership with the University of California’s Agriculture and Natural Resources. The incubator helps local entrepreneurs grow and thrive in the food and agricultural space; these entrepreneurs provided the ag technologies used for the AgTech Pilot. The potential of innovative AgTech to improve the efficiency and productivity of the food system is exciting and seemingly unlimited. However, even in a state considered a power-house of technology, the lack of adequate broadband coverage, with adequate download and upload speeds to meet today’s business needs – let alone tomorrow’s – is a major barrier. This connectivity is essential not only on-farm but in town. Ken noted that Woodland is home to more than 100 food and ag companies, including processors and R&D – a vital part of the regional economy. Yet an updated map showing broadband grades across region, based on speed, number of providers, cost, and reliability of service, among other factors, had dismal showings for Yolo County.

The final stop for Chairman Pai was Wilson Vineyards in Clarksburg. There, the group was greeted by David Ogilvie, Vineyard Manager, Wilson Vineyards, Director of Production, Muddy Boot Wine and Silt Wine Co. David’s fields are also a site for the AgTech Pilot. David provided a tour of the vineyards and described a new project with soil moisture probes and solar panels.  Similar to Muller Ranch, Wilson Vineyards is also challenged with access to broadband coverage capable of supporting his ambitions for advancing efficiencies through AgTech which are providing a 10-15% improvement. Some of the fields also lack cell phone coverage, stalling real time decision making and management. These challenges have spurred David’s involvement helping to solve the issue. For several years running, and in addition to serving the demands of farming and family, David has been an active leader of the Metro Chamber’s Cap-to-Cap federal advocacy program’s Food & Agriculture Committee. The meetings the Food & Ag team leaders held with the FCC while in Washington DC over the past two years, and the innovative AgTech Pilot, were the catalysts for the Chairman’s visit to Yolo County.

The evening before the field tours, the Chairman participated in a small roundtable discussion with local broadband, food and ag and rural development leaders. The evening included a signature Farm to Fork dining experience at Mulvaney’s B&L. Special thanks to broadband champions Assemblymember Cecilia Aguiar-Curry, Yolo County Supervisor Don Saylor, and California State Food and Agriculture and California Broadband Councilmember Joy Sterling, for their dedicated commitment to making sure all Californians have true connectivity.

Chairman Pai said he was very impressed by the level of collaboration and partnership shown at each stop along the visit, showcasing the special connectedness of our region across all aspects of the food and ag economy and the community. Valley Vision and the Metro Chamber, in partnership with the FCC, and all the leaders who joined in hosting the FCC Chairman and telling our story, look forward to delivering on our shared mission to close the Digital Divide. Valley Vision manages the CPUC-funded Connected Capital Broadband Consortium. Materials on the AgTech Pilot project, broadband mapping and grades by county and community, and the Yolo County on-farm mapping project can be found on Valley Vision’s website.

Trish Kelly is Managing Director at Valley Vision working on Food & Ag, the 21st Century Workforce and Broadband Access and Adoption.